Recalibrate?

It might be time to revise my expectations for USC football - for this season, obviously, but maybe also for the program itself. The last time I went through such a transition was in 2003 when the Trojans followed an outstanding season (11-2, Orange Bowl victory over Iowa, Carson Palmer’s Heisman) with a national championship. I started to believe that BCS bowl berths would be commonplace and national championships not infrequent.

Trojan fans have been spoiled by an unprecedented level of success over the last five years or so. We have come to expect that kind of success every year, and we have been lulled into believing that Pete Carroll has installed a system at USC that will perpetuate this success as long as Carroll remains the head coach. However, the loss to Stanford raises serious questions about this perception. Is USC returning to a more normal state for modern college football programs? Was this game the continuation of a negative trend that started with the 2006 Rose Bowl (Texas 41 – USC 38 if anyone needs a reminder), a trend characterized by losing to three unranked Pac-10 teams in less than a year, a trend in which last year’s dominating Rose Bowl victory over Michigan is an anomalous blip? Or, is USC football still on an elevated plateau with the loss to Stanford as a rare exception? I hope for the latter, but I fear the former.

The fact is there is no objective evidence this year’s team is any better than average, even though they have more talent than any other team in the country. USC has beaten four teams with a combined record of 9-14 (Idaho is 1-5; Nebraska is 4-2, barely beat Ball St., and got blown out by Missouri; Washington St. is 2-4; and Washington is 2-3) and lost to Stanford with its 2-3 record. It is unreasonable to expect the Trojans to never lose. It is not unreasonable, however, to expect the Trojans never to lose at home against a team the caliber of Stanford.

Carroll and the rest of the USC coaching staff have received excessive praise for reviving a slumbering program and building it into the dominant program of the decade. It was deserved. However, the fire and intensity with which Trojan teams customarily played during their amazing four-year run from 2002-2005 has only been evident sporadically since then. The extreme listlessness and total lack of intensity the Trojans displayed last Saturday against Stanford is impossible for me to fathom. Has all the success in the recent past led to arrogance and complacency on the coaching staff? It has sure looked that way lately. Hopefully, this loss is just what the team needed to prompt some recalibration of its own.

It’s time for the coaches to really earn their pay. Yes, Carroll is a recruiting fiend, but if this game proves anything, it’s that vastly superior talent does not guarantee wins. Apparently the Washington game wasn’t enough proof for the players that they have to do more than just show up to win, and for the coaches that they have to take every opponent seriously. Carroll has not had a Trojan team in this situation before. This team could feasibly self-destruct and limp through the rest of the season with 4 or 5 more losses (if Stanford can beat USC at home, then anybody can beat them). This team, players and coaches, needs to use this loss as a wake-up call to reevaluate, refocus, and rededicate to playing and coaching football like Trojan fans have come to expect. If that doesn’t happen, I will start having doubts about the health of the USC football program. Which will it be? Prove that the Stanford game was a fluke and USC still sets the bar for college football excellence!

However the rest of the season goes, it just got a lot more interesting, and I’ll be watching just as closely and enthusiastically as ever.

Fight On!

USC-UW

I knew our seats were probably nosebleed-inducing, but was surprised (and out of breath) to find they were in the absolute top row.


Our view of the field standing up. The support post did not actually obstruct our view when sitting.


Looking east over Lake Washington toward the Cascade Mountains. The mountains are not visible due to the weather.


Second quarter

Even though we were sitting in the top row, it was a great vantage point and we still had a good view of the action.


Fourth quarter. This play was Jake Locker's one-yard sneak for the Huskies' last touchdown of the game. The visitors' section, Spirit of Troy, and contingent of four Song Girls are in the background.

You probably can’t make out the numbers on the board displaying team statistics near the top of the above photo. This was one of the last plays of the game, so they should read something pretty close to: Huskies 190 total yards (100 rushing/90 passing); Trojans 460 total yards (224 rushing, 236 passing). Yeah, USC dominated the game statistically. So why was the final score so close? Trojan mistakes from start to finish.

USC committed three turnovers, two of which led directly to Husky touchdowns (one 14 yard drive after a fumbled snap and one pick-six). A blocked punt and return to the USC nine yard-line led to the third Husky touchdown. UW’s field goal concluded a 10-play, 22 yard drive that was jumpstarted by a 15-yard penalty for interfering with the punt receiver and extended by two 15-yard pass interference calls. USC was penalized for 161 yards and five of the Huskies 15 first downs were due to penalties.

That is the litany of negatives, aside from Booty’s inconsistency. The positives? Well, the last time USC made this many mistakes, in Corvallis in 2006, they dropped their first Pac-10 game in three years. The fact that the Trojans escaped Husky Stadium with a road win after that much sloppy and mentally-deficient play can be thought of as a positive. All the credit goes to the defense, which was truly dominant. UW’s first drive of the game was its longest at 67 yards, but ended with a Thomas Williams interception. Only one other Husky drive was longer than 30 yards.

This week’s Stanford game arrives at a fortuitous time. USC has suffered a rash of injuries. Hopefully, the next couple of games will give LB Brian Cushing, LB Clay Matthews (Cushing’s back-up), C Kristofer O’Dowd, RG Chilo Rachal, OG Alatini Malu (Rachal’s back-up), CB Cary Harris, CB Shareece Wright (Harris’s back-up), and TB Stafon Johnson time to rest and heal before the meat of the schedule begins on October 27.

UW Tailgating Photos

Cat and I flew to Seattle early Saturday morning for the USC-UW game. We landed at noon, rented a car, and drove straight to the U District. After parking north of campus, we met up with my cousins who are sophomores at UW for a few hours of tailgating with another cousin, who is a USC fan. I tailgated with Anne at the last USC game I attended in person.


Anne, Cat, and Marnie

Marnie is not actually a USC fan; she apparently lost a bet to Anne the previous weekend when USC played Washington State.


Cat was definitely the MVP of our mixed Husky-Trojan flip cup competition.


Husky Stadium, north side

The clouds over Husky Stadium looked ominous, foreshadowing the mistake-riddled play of the Trojans throughout the game.


Our tailgate hosts: Zach and Anne, Marnie and her husband.

USC-Nebraska

I didn’t have any noteworthy thoughts about the state of the program after the Idaho game, which showed us nothing about the team. After the following two-week wait to finally see the team in real action, I was definitely tense when Saturday arrived. Obviously, I liked what I saw on Saturday night.

Things I love about the USC Trojans right now:

• Offensive play-calling – Steve Sarkisian is showing willingness and an ability to effectively adjust his play-calling mid-game. In the 2007 Rose Bowl, USC abandoned their balanced attack in favor of passing nearly exclusively in the second half (26 of 28 plays at one point; the two runs were quarterback sneaks for first downs) to blow open the game. On Saturday against Nebraska, the Trojans turned to the running game after two stalled drives weighted toward passing and Nebraska took a 10-7 lead. They finished with 313 yards rushing vs. 144 yards passing. Best of all, the feel of the Nebraska game was reminiscent of Norm Chow-called games in 2002-2004. Many opponents during those years were allowed to hang around well into the second quarter, perhaps drawing fans of those teams into a false sense of hope. However, once Chow ran through his script, deciphered the opponent’s defensive scheme, and made his adjustments, the offense became virtually unstoppable. This game felt like that.

• Rushing defense – The defensive script for the Trojans is the same as always: stuff the run and keep everything in front of the secondary. Once the opponent’s attack becomes one-dimensional, the offense as a whole usually suffers. That’s exactly what happened in Lincoln on Saturday night. Yes, Nebraska moved the ball with lots of short passes underneath for 1 ½ quarters, but the USC defense made them earn every yard. More importantly, Sam Keller started the second half with interceptions on Nebraska’s first two drives and was mostly ineffective until the Trojans started playing their reserves.

• New guys stepping up – This is also nothing new, but the depth of talent on this team and the readiness of back-ups to excel in critical roles when needed still amazes me. Freshman David Ausberry has emerged as the Trojans’ most reliable WR. Stanley Havili is back from his medical redshirt year performing exactly as everyone hoped. Sophomore Stafon Johnson, who had all of three carries in 2006, was the offensive player of the game at Nebraska (144 yards on 11 carries). Clay Matthews did a fine job filling in for Brian Cushing. Freshman Kristofer O’Dowd’s performance at center in place of Matt Spanos has been exceptional.

The Trojans’ next 5 games, with the possible exception of Washington in Seattle, look like absolute gimmes, especially considering the atrocious play of Arizona and Notre Dame so far. Unless USC sleepwalks through one of these games (which has been a problem in recent years), it looks like the Trojans now have a five-game season starting at Oregon on October 27, with a bunch of dress-rehearsal scrimmages until then.

The nervous anticipation I was feeling last week has turned into eager excitement for the rest of the season to unfold.

I Miss Norm

Do any other Trojan football fans miss Norm Chow?

I wrote multiple times during the 2005 season that, even though the USC offense continued to put up monster numbers after the departure of Chow as offensive coordinator, it was too early to reach a verdict on whether the Trojan offense would ultimately suffer without Chow.

First, I wrote that with the players returning in 2005 (Bush, Byrd, Jarrett, Leinart, Smith, White, and four past starters on the offensive line), the offense would be extremely prolific no matter who was running the show. My concern was the loss of Chow’s play-calling genius.

Then, I questioned Michael Ventre’s assertion on MSNBC that USC lost nothing offensively when they lost Chow. Finally, I reiterated my feeling that USC was worse off for losing Chow’s play-calling ability and we would have to wait until at least 2006 before passing judgment on the performance of his replacements, Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian. To repeat a quote from a December 2005 Pat Forde article on ESPN.com (insider):

"Norm had an uncanny ability to call plays," Sarkisian said. "We may not have always known what was coming, but it worked. Especially in big games, he was willing to make calls nobody else would make.

"I think we're a little bit more on the structured side. We know what calls are coming. We know by the play sheet what to call, depending on the situation. The quarterback knows what's being called by the specific situation."

That sounds great from the perspective of an opposing defensive coordinator.

Personally, I think with Norm Chow calling the plays, Lendale White does not get stopped on 4th & 2 to turn the ball over to Texas with just over two minutes remaining in the Rose Bowl, and we are defending national champs; the Trojans do not go four games in a row without scoring 30 points or more in 2006; and USC does not settle for four field goals against Washington.

Yes, I miss Norm.

2006 So Far

The good news is we’re 5 and 0. The bad news is . . . well, I’m not terribly comfortable with the manner in which we got to 5-0.

I felt really good after the Arkansas game. After a slow start, the Trojans took control of the game in the second half and won a decisive victory. The slow start could be chalked up to it being the first game of the season. Now, it just looks like Arkansas hadn’t yet realized their potential.

The defense looked great in the Nebraska game. However, based on more recent indicators, that appears to have been a result of Nebraska’s conservative offensive play-calling rather than inspired defensive play.

The final score of the Arizona game looked decisive, but Arizona’s offense is the worst in the conference, it was close until the fourth quarter, and the Trojans needed Arizona to shoot itself in the foot in order to reach the 20-point plateau.

The close, down-to-the-wire victory in Pullman could be attributed to narrowly escaping a widely-predicted trap game played in a remote hostile environment, but the same script played out one week later, at home, against the other Washington school that won only three games in the previous two seasons.

Where are all the big defensive plays? After +5 turnovers in the season-opening Arkansas game, USC is -1 over the following four games and has lost the turnover battle in the last two games (when was the last time that happened?!). USC has only 7 sacks on the season (5 in the Arizona game) with zero in the last two games.

The Trojans are doing enough to win games and are still undefeated, so I’m not complaining. With luck, the team will settle into a dominating style of play we have come to expect from Pete Carroll-coached Trojan teams. Perhaps they will continue to do just enough to win the rest of their games and remain in contention for a national title throughout the season. More likely, if their play does not begin an upward trend soon, they’ll drop a game or two in the second half of the season, especially with a challenging sequence of Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame in November.

Turning Point

The Notre Dame game was the turning point of the season. Each of the past three seasons has had one, after which the team never looked back. In 2002, it was the Cal game. USC lost the previous week in overtime at Wazzu. Trailing Cal by 21-3, USC scored 27 consecutive points to win the game 30-28. USC blew out its remaining 7 opponents, including Iowa in the Orange Bowl.

In 2003, it was the ASU game. USC lost its previous game in three overtimes to Cal (the Trojans’ last loss to date). USC was down 17-10 at halftime. Matt Leinart had been knocked out of the game in the first half with knee and ankle injuries. With Brandon Hance warming up to start the second half, Leinart asked to be put back in. The Trojans scored 27 unanswered points to win 37-17. The team won its remaining eight games by an average of more than 26 points, including a Rose Bowl win over Michigan to win its first national championship since 1978.

In 2004, it was again the Cal game. With USC leading by six, Cal advanced to first and goal with less than two minutes remaining. The Cal QB, Aaron Rodgers, had earlier in the game set the NCAA single-game record for consecutive completions. The USC defense held, sacking Rodgers on second down and forcing three incompletions. The Trojans won their remaining eight games. Only the UCLA game was close, but USC rebounded from that game to destroy Oklahoma 55-19 in the Orange Bowl.

The Notre Dame game was also a turning point for Leinart. The pressure of maintaining a school-record winning streak and leading the team to an unprecedented third national title was weighing heavily on the fifth-year Heisman-trophy winning QB. He had suffered a concussion and required stitches two weeks prior in a comeback victory over ASU. He had his worst game of the season at Notre Dame, completing only 53% of his passes with two interceptions and zero touchdowns. But, he led the most exciting game-winning drive of the season, including the amazing fourth and nine toss to Dwayne Jarrett from the USC 26 with 1:32 to go. Reading about that play today still gives me shivers.

As Leinart crouched under center, he said he saw a Notre Dame player to his right, "Kind of bluffing, but coming. Whatever. And I'm like, 'OK [shoot], here we go.'"

Kiffin could see that Leinart recognized the coverage.

"He's got it. He's got it!" Kiffin said into the headset.

Sarkisian started mouthing the audible to himself.

Carroll did the same, thinking, It's there, it's there, is he going to? Jarrett, wide to the left, had double vision from a fall earlier in the game, but clearly saw what everyone in the stadium and millions of television viewers saw too.

Leinart had stepped back and was changing his call.

"I was like 'Wow, I'm going to have to make a play.'" Jarrett said. "I just tried to open my eyes as wide as possible."

Leinart turned and pointed right with a closed hand. Then he turned and did the same to the left.

And then Matt Leinart stepped forward to start a play that will forever define him.

After Notre Dame, the pressure lifted from Leinart’s shoulders and he started enjoying playing football again.

There has been some speculation that the pressure of securing his legacy as the greatest college quarterback in history and winning an unprecedented third-consecutive national championship will be too much pressure for Leinart. He let his emotions get the better of him in the UCLA game, the final home game of his career. I don’t see that happening. I expect a performance more like the one following his emotionally-draining experience at Notre Dame, after which he threw for four touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 77% completion rate at Washington.

USC-UW

OK – the offense looked good.  Leinart’s passes clearly had improved accuracy and zip.  Jarrett had an extraterrestrial catch.  On the negative side, there was another major breakdown on kick coverage.  The defense allowed Washington two long TD drives.  Of more concern is yet another injury in the secondary.  I don’t know his status, but it looked like John Walker injured his ankle in the first half, and he appeared later on crutches.  Hopefully, it’s not serious and he can get back on the field soon.  Overall, the result was very satisfactory.

I’ll be at the Coliseum next week for Homecoming.  I can’t wait to see the team in person.