It Was Fun While It Lasted

This is what I wrote and intended to post under the heading "It Was Fun While It Lasted" after USC's last loss to Oregon on October 27:

First of all, USC can still finish 10-2 and go to a BCS bowl, so there's plenty to play for. Although the Trojans lost to Oregon last Saturday, their play demonstrated that USC can beat anybody if they eliminate costly mistakes such as red-zone turnovers and big penalties. That includes Oregon State, Cal, Arizona State, and UCLA, the four remaining teams on USC's schedule.

Nevertheless, the Trojans five-year reign over the Pac-10 has unfortunately come to an end. After last Saturday, there is no longer any question that the Trojans have descended from their perch as the dominant program in college football to being merely a 'good' team. As fans, it hurts so much because we know how it feels to be at the top.

At a time like this, it is critical to maintain perspective. As disappointed as we all are right now, we are seven years removed from the darkest days of USC football, before Pete Carroll arrived to lead the Trojans back from irrelevance and mediocrity. The program is incomparably stronger than it was in 2000. USC has not lost its potential to be a great team and there is no reason to believe USC will not continue to compete for Pac-10 and national championships every year.

I don't remember why I didn't follow through with the post (I probably determined it was excessively negative), but having not deleted the draft provides insight into my thinking at the low point of the 2007 season. Clearly, I jumped the gun in giving up on the Pac-10 title and overreacted regarding the Trojans' status in college football. However, until Oregon lost Dennis Dixon, it looked like the Ducks were going to roll through the rest of the conference and into the BCS National Championship Game, where they would have been this year's selection to beat up an over-matched Ohio State team, instead of LSU. So, USC probably owes its sixth consecutive Pac-10 title to Oregon's misfortune (as does LSU its BCS title). Of course, the Trojans had more than their fair share of injuries to overcome.

My thinking was on the mark in other aspects, including my assessment of the team's chances against the remainder of their schedule. Happily, the team also believed there was still plenty to play for, regrouped, and finished the season impressively. Consequently, the 2007 season was "successful", based on my arbitrarily-defined criteria, and the Trojans appear poised to again contend for the national championship in 2008, just as I predicted.

I Still Miss Norm

At about this time in 2006, I lamented the absence of Norm Chow and expressed my belief that USC was worse off without Chow. I had hope after the Nebraska game that USC might finally be learning to fill the void, but the 2007 season since then has killed that hope. This column by Jon Wilner makes many of the same points I made in 2005 to argue that USC has not adequately replaced Chow's skill sets:

USC should not be scoring 23 points against Stanford, 20 against Arizona and 17 against Oregon. It should not be committing 10 turnovers in those three games (the Trojans are last in the league in turnover margin). There’s too much talent, way, way too much talent on the USC side of the ball. And those other teams, Arizona, Oregon and Stanford — they aren’t very good defensively (fifth, seventh and ninth in the Pac-10, respectively).

[. . .]

In Year One A.N. (After Norm), the Trojans had arguably the best array of offensive talent in Pac-10 history, and there have been some pretty good offenses in this league:

A Heisman-winning quarterback, the best tailback of his generation, another tailback who scored 26 touchdowns, plus two NFL receivers and three first-team all-league linemen. The Trojans averaged 49 points and almost 600 yards per game and play-callers Steve Sarkisian and Lane Kiffin looked like they were little Norm Jrs. But you didn’t need to be an offensive mastermind to Get the ball to Reggie.

The past two years, the Trojans have gotten progressively sloppier, more predictable and far less effective. Some of the decline has to do with personnel, but not all of it — not even close to all of it.

[. . .]

Chow would never run when everyone knew a run was coming, he’d never call all those swing passes and bubble screens, all those quick outs that are easy to see coming and even easier to defend. He’d be throwing downfield – and doing it effectively.

I believe that Steve Sarkisian is a smart coach, and I believe that he will learn from his mistakes, but he is relatively inexperienced and it is hard to not think of what might have been had Pete Carroll conducted a nation-wide search to find a replacement for Chow. I hope that promoting first Lane Kiffin and now Sarkisian to Chow's former position pays off in the long run for USC, but the USC football program should not be in the business of providing on-the-job training!

Healing?

The Trojans appear to be returning to near full-strength just in the nick of time. I expect Saturday’s game at Oregon to be the most challenging game of the regular season for the Trojans.

Here is the projected depth chart for the 2007 Trojans updated to reflect the current injury situation to the best of my knowledge. I should note that I was surprised to see Brian Cushing, Rey Maualuga, and especially Stafon Johnson play as much as they did at Notre Dame.


Affected players’ names are followed by a number indicating the number of games he has missed so far this year due to injury and his status for the Oregon game.
Strikethroughs indicate players who are out for the year.
Contrary to USC’s official press release last week, Nick Howell is not out for the year.

The linebacker corps has returned to virtually full strength. Cushing, Maualuga, and Keith Rivers are all finally ready to start together for the first time since the Idaho game. The secondary will also be starting their strongest line-up, excepting Josh Pinkard who is lost for the year. Finally, the offensive line is surely returning to health. The 2007 projected starting offensive line of Sam Baker, Jeff Byers, Matt Spanos, Chilo Rachal, and Drew Radovich will probably start together for the first time this year.

Mark Sanchez will start again in place of the healing John David Booty. That might be a good thing.

I am very excited about tomorrow’s game. This is about the time Pete Carroll’s Trojan teams have engaged the afterburners in years past, and last week at Notre Dame they played their most complete game of the season. Of course, Notre Dame is no Oregon (this phrase normally having the opposite meaning than in 2007) and Notre Dame Stadium is no Autzen. However, I believe tomorrow we will finally be privileged to see the Trojan football team everyone expected at the beginning of the season.

USC-Nebraska

I didn’t have any noteworthy thoughts about the state of the program after the Idaho game, which showed us nothing about the team. After the following two-week wait to finally see the team in real action, I was definitely tense when Saturday arrived. Obviously, I liked what I saw on Saturday night.

Things I love about the USC Trojans right now:

• Offensive play-calling – Steve Sarkisian is showing willingness and an ability to effectively adjust his play-calling mid-game. In the 2007 Rose Bowl, USC abandoned their balanced attack in favor of passing nearly exclusively in the second half (26 of 28 plays at one point; the two runs were quarterback sneaks for first downs) to blow open the game. On Saturday against Nebraska, the Trojans turned to the running game after two stalled drives weighted toward passing and Nebraska took a 10-7 lead. They finished with 313 yards rushing vs. 144 yards passing. Best of all, the feel of the Nebraska game was reminiscent of Norm Chow-called games in 2002-2004. Many opponents during those years were allowed to hang around well into the second quarter, perhaps drawing fans of those teams into a false sense of hope. However, once Chow ran through his script, deciphered the opponent’s defensive scheme, and made his adjustments, the offense became virtually unstoppable. This game felt like that.

• Rushing defense – The defensive script for the Trojans is the same as always: stuff the run and keep everything in front of the secondary. Once the opponent’s attack becomes one-dimensional, the offense as a whole usually suffers. That’s exactly what happened in Lincoln on Saturday night. Yes, Nebraska moved the ball with lots of short passes underneath for 1 ½ quarters, but the USC defense made them earn every yard. More importantly, Sam Keller started the second half with interceptions on Nebraska’s first two drives and was mostly ineffective until the Trojans started playing their reserves.

• New guys stepping up – This is also nothing new, but the depth of talent on this team and the readiness of back-ups to excel in critical roles when needed still amazes me. Freshman David Ausberry has emerged as the Trojans’ most reliable WR. Stanley Havili is back from his medical redshirt year performing exactly as everyone hoped. Sophomore Stafon Johnson, who had all of three carries in 2006, was the offensive player of the game at Nebraska (144 yards on 11 carries). Clay Matthews did a fine job filling in for Brian Cushing. Freshman Kristofer O’Dowd’s performance at center in place of Matt Spanos has been exceptional.

The Trojans’ next 5 games, with the possible exception of Washington in Seattle, look like absolute gimmes, especially considering the atrocious play of Arizona and Notre Dame so far. Unless USC sleepwalks through one of these games (which has been a problem in recent years), it looks like the Trojans now have a five-game season starting at Oregon on October 27, with a bunch of dress-rehearsal scrimmages until then.

The nervous anticipation I was feeling last week has turned into eager excitement for the rest of the season to unfold.

Perfect

I know; the Trojans’ record this season is not perfect and neither is the team. One thing that is perfect about USC football is Pete Carroll’s philosophy about game preparation and the mental foundation of performing consistently at a high level.

I don’t read the transcripts of Carroll’s weekly Tuesday press conferences very often, but several excellent quotes emerged from this week’s conference that provide insight into Carroll’s philosophy and serve as a reminder of how USC has been able to maintain excellence for almost five years now.

USC’s approach to every game is the same:

“I've never even begun to try and pump a game since the first Notre Dame game about it being a special game. I made that mistake in the first year and I knew it was a classic mistake and we haven't done it since and won't do it.”

USC lost that game by 11 points, the only one of Carroll’s 11 losses that was by more than a touchdown.

“Every week, there's something about a game. It's the biggest crowd ever; it's the first time this or that and that's what we've come to expect and that's normal for us in a game. So those factors should not be part of the make up of a game.”

This approach may proscribe the occasional emotion-fuelled victory over a more-talented opponent (which almost got Notre Dame a victory over us last year), but it also helps eliminate the let-downs and poor performances against inferior teams. Hence, beating Stanford 42-0 after the only loss of the year. The key is to establish consistency at an elevated level.

A follow-up question about Carroll’s first game against Notre Dame segued into a great explanation of his philosophy.

“I knew I screwed it up. I knew I blew it. I could tell during the week but I went with it. I just had to learn. It's more fun probably to talk up these kinds of old historic this and that's. And it's fun for everybody but it doesn't serve the preparation of the athletes and the coaches. It doesn't serve you well. You don't need that. We don't need extra incentives. If you understand that every game is a championship game, and you're going to give everything you possibly can in the preparation and in the participation of that game, then when would you ever decide when to, when not to? That's the whole point. It's the same philosophy that goes through everything that we do in football. When are you going to decide that a play is more important than another play; when I need to go full speed or when I need to try my best? So you get out of that mentality – you don't allow for that kind of thinking in any phase. We don't in any phase of our program. We're real hard about any indications of that being displayed by our guys. That's why we try to practice so fast and so hard every single day, every day of the year for six years.”

It’s no surprise then that Carroll was so animated during the instant replay debacle during the Oregon game.

“When the whole instant replay thing happened, if you looked, I think the clock was 13:50 or something left in the game. We were all caught up in the replay thing; we're waiting to see what was going to happen. We were very competitive about not letting them score there. We took them down to fourth down and had a great chance to keep them out of there and not give them a breath of hope and then that whole thing started. It was somewhere in the middle of that, that it clicked in my mind that this is an opportunity that we could lose our edge. If they get this decision, and now it's ten points and there's a whole quarter left to play, that we could really suffer through this, this exchange, momentum and all. And it hit at me and I realized that what I needed to do is I needed to make sure and capture the focus of our players and not let them wander. Sure enough, I walked over and I saw a couple of our red-shirt freshmen offensive linemen kind of sitting on their helmets and they were kind of yucking it up and not really paying attention. And I looked at Dwayne Jarrett and I saw him kind of talking and I realized that I had to capture, I had to attempt to capture what the heck was going on because we might lose the focus and then all of a sudden, this turns into an ESPN game and then they're cheerleading for what the Ducks did at the end of the game as opposed to what we were going to do. So in an effort to try and make sure that we didn't, it was a teachable opportunity as well. That the game isn't over, and that you need to stay focused. I tried to capture them so I was working hard. From the All-American receiver and the quarterback and Ryan Kalil and the oldest guy in Oscar Lua, to the red-shirt freshman, I was trying to send the message of how we need to finish this game and to make sure that if nothing else, they were captured by my craziness down there. What was extraordinary for us in that moment is that the offense went out on the field after they scored, after all the garbage that happened, the offense went out there and went "Bang!" right down the field and scored a touchdown and it was over. We had them. I was fearing that we had the opportunity to lose the momentum over whatever that span was going to be and it was so important to remain competitive throughout that game that whatever it took, I was going to do it. Obviously, whatever it took, took me a little bit too far. But that was a competitors moment right there I thought. I wanted to at least let them know what I was feeling. I was wearing it on my sleeve.”

Methinks he could write a book about this stuff.

On scheduling:

“Go back to the Auburn games and the Virginia Tech game, and the Arkansas game. Those are extraordinary bowl game atmospheres that are perfect for you to start your season off because once you've accomplished that win however you do it, you set yourself in motion to handle whatever is going to come up during the course of the season. I think there's a vast difference between that and playing a team that's from a different division or something. Some teams do, and we understand the philosophy there and it's a great philosophy as well but this has really served us well. There's no time when we ever take a breather in the schedule or look at anybody than the opponent because we know that anybody can beat you. That's about learning how to respect the game and respect the match-ups and respect what can happen that can be outside of your control. That's why playing against teams that are struggling is such an issue to play well because now you've gone over the top, you've lived the philosophy, and you've proven that you understand.”

I love the (unintentional, perhaps, but not likely) little dig at teams that schedule Div. 1-AA opponents, and this response to a question about Florida playing Western Carolina this week.

“We couldn't be playing for a Rose Bowl if we were playing Western Carolina. I think the impact of the Pac-10 championship being this week is perfect timing. It's beautiful and we're looking forward to it.”

There’s much more, including Carroll’s opinion of instant replay (he’s against it in any format), a joke about the meaninglessness of statistics, teasing Jeff Tedford about attention from the NFL, and his take on the importance of coaching vs. players’ talent.

Sorry about the length of this post – just trying to live up to the name of the blog!

Turning Point 2006

Last January, just prior to the Rose Bowl, I posted an entry outlining the turning point games of the 2002 – 2005 seasons. The loss to Oregon State looks like this season’s turning point. A recap:

2002: Having lost in overtime the previous week to WSU, USC trailed Cal 21-3. The Trojans scored 27 consecutive points to win the game 30-28. USC blew out its remaining 7 opponents, including Iowa in the Orange Bowl.
2003: Again coming off an overtime loss, USC was down 17-10 at halftime to ASU. The Trojans scored 27 unanswered points to win 37-17. The team won its remaining eight games by an average of more than 26 points, including a Rose Bowl win over Michigan to win its first national championship since 1978.
2004: It was the Cal game again. With USC leading by six, Cal advanced to first and goal with less than two minutes remaining. The USC defense held, sacking Aaron Rodgers (who set a single-game record for consecutive completions earlier in the game) on second down and forcing three incompletions. The Trojans won their remaining eight games, including a 55-19 shellacking of Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl.
2005: After the Notre Dame game, Leinart finally shrugged off the pressure of maintaining a school-record winning streak and leading the team to an unprecedented third national title and started playing relaxed football again. The team won the remainder of their regular season games handily (except a close one to Fresno State), but lost the BCS Championship game to Texas.

2006 so far: Trailing 33-10 with less than 20 minutes remaining against Oregon State, USC scored the last 21 points of the game and narrowly missed sending the game to overtime when their 2-point conversion attempt failed with seven seconds remaining. Since the loss, USC has beat Stanford 42-0 and Oregon 35-10, thereby outscoring its opponents 98-10 in the last 140 minutes of play. There are two big differences between the Oregon State game and the turning point games of the previous four seasons. First of all, the game ended as a loss. Second, it came a little bit later in the season, but only by a game or two. This is not surprising considering the youth of this year’s team.

Of course, I had the benefit of hindsight last season whereas there are still three games left in the 2006 regular season. However, if recent history is any indication, and the trend that started late in the Oregon State game continues, Trojan fans have much to look forward to for the remainder of the season.

2006 So Far

The good news is we’re 5 and 0. The bad news is . . . well, I’m not terribly comfortable with the manner in which we got to 5-0.

I felt really good after the Arkansas game. After a slow start, the Trojans took control of the game in the second half and won a decisive victory. The slow start could be chalked up to it being the first game of the season. Now, it just looks like Arkansas hadn’t yet realized their potential.

The defense looked great in the Nebraska game. However, based on more recent indicators, that appears to have been a result of Nebraska’s conservative offensive play-calling rather than inspired defensive play.

The final score of the Arizona game looked decisive, but Arizona’s offense is the worst in the conference, it was close until the fourth quarter, and the Trojans needed Arizona to shoot itself in the foot in order to reach the 20-point plateau.

The close, down-to-the-wire victory in Pullman could be attributed to narrowly escaping a widely-predicted trap game played in a remote hostile environment, but the same script played out one week later, at home, against the other Washington school that won only three games in the previous two seasons.

Where are all the big defensive plays? After +5 turnovers in the season-opening Arkansas game, USC is -1 over the following four games and has lost the turnover battle in the last two games (when was the last time that happened?!). USC has only 7 sacks on the season (5 in the Arizona game) with zero in the last two games.

The Trojans are doing enough to win games and are still undefeated, so I’m not complaining. With luck, the team will settle into a dominating style of play we have come to expect from Pete Carroll-coached Trojan teams. Perhaps they will continue to do just enough to win the rest of their games and remain in contention for a national title throughout the season. More likely, if their play does not begin an upward trend soon, they’ll drop a game or two in the second half of the season, especially with a challenging sequence of Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame in November.

Not Nervous

I'm at a loss. I haven't really felt nervous the past month and today is no different. Last year at this time I could hardly contain my anxiety. This is especially strange when contrasted with how I felt before some of this season's regular season games, especially Oregon, Cal, and especially Notre Dame and fUCLA. Like I said, I can't explain it.

I'm wearing the same shirt I wore last year, just in case.

The Eight-Step Program for Beating the Trojans

According to Seth Fast Glass of the UCLA rag Daily Bruin, UCLA must complete the following eight steps to beat the Trojans tomorrow:

STEP 1: Win the coin toss; score the first touchdown;

STEP 2: Throw the ball;

STEP 3: Take the lead into halftime;

STEP 4: Get Matt Leinart's jersey dirty;

STEP 5: Make a play on special teams;

STEP 6: Win the turnover margin;

STEP 7: Don't let USC make a big defensive play late; and

STEP 8: Get lucky

Is that all? Piece o' cake, right?

Given that the odds of UCLA completing Step 1 are exactly 1 to 1 and rapidly decline from there, it looks like the Bruins are going to be disappointed. Halftime leads didn't help Oregon, Arizona State, Notre Dame, or Fresno State, nor did big plays on special teams by Arizona State, Notre Dame, Fresno State, or UCLA last year. Matt Leinart has the country's best offensive line keeping his jersey clean. USC has the best turnover margin in the country. Making big defensive plays late has practically become a USC trademark (excepting the Notre Dame game). Step 8 speaks for itself.

BCS Bowl-Bound

USC apparently clinched its fourth consecutive BCS bowl berth when Oregon beat Oregon State yesterday, even if USC loses to UCLA. Of course, a loss to UCLA would knock them out of the Rose Bowl and end their hopes of winning a third consecutive national championship.