Crazy Stat to Record for Posterity

Pete Carroll is 78-14, two games into his eighth year at USC. His 14 losses have been by a combined total of 59 points. That's an average of 4.2 points per game. Only one loss, in 2001 at Notre Dame, was by more than seven points (USC lost to Notre Dame 16-27 in Carroll's first season).

On Saturday UCLA lost to BYU 0-59.

HT: ocregister.com.

Norm Chow is Dead to Me

No, not really; I'm just formally disowning him. I harbor no ill will toward Norm Chow and I wish him happiness, but not luck or success when it comes to his new job (which he obviously does not need). Chow is no longer a Trojan. He is a Bruin, so he is now the enemy.

Therefore, you will no longer see me pining after his masterful play-calling. Chow has been gone almost as many years as he was originally with the Trojans. Objectively speaking, there has been no drop-off in offensive production over the last two seasons compared to 2002-2004, Chow's last three years with the Trojans. Refer to USC Trojan Football Analysis for evidence of that assertion. Art of Troy has convinced me that the decreased level of scoring over the last two seasons is actually the result of less opportunistic defensive play, especially in terms of turnovers and direct scoring by the defense.

I obviously have a lot of respect for Chow. He is a fantastic coach and he's getting a lot of well-deserved love from pundits after UCLA's upset of Tennessee. I still believe we would have between one and three more national titles (2005-2007) if he had stayed, but that has to do with better play-calling at critical moments in crucial games, and everyone knows hindsight is 20-20.

If UCLA's new coaching staff helps revive a real rivalry between USC and UCLA, that would be a good thing. However, UCLA first has a lot of work to do on the field. They are off to a good start in 2008, but it's way too early to pass judgment on the success or failure of the new Bruin regime. Pete Carroll went 6-6 his first year at USC with Chow and DeWayne Walker on his staff. It will be interesting to compare Rick Neuheisel's first year at UCLA with Carroll's first year at USC.

L.A. Times background info on Chow to UCLA here (my first draft of this post was back in January).

Pete Carroll Is Glad for UCLA

From Ted Miller:

We hear a lot of stuff from the SEC -- I think that's a great statement that UCLA was able to knock those guys off," Carroll said. "I don't know what they'll say from the other side, but you can't make a stronger statement. One of their stronger teams got beaten by a first opportunity for a new coach in a new program. It was a great win for UCLA and I think it does make a big statement. I'm glad it happened.

And why not? It reflects well on the Pac-10, and I don't think for one minute anything UCLA does across town influences Carroll's philosophy about running a football program. Sure, he's competitive, but his focus won't turn to UCLA until November 30, the Sunday before the regular season finale against UCLA. Therein lies the primary difference between USC football and UCLA football: USC measures success by conference titles, BCS bowl victories, and national championships; UCLA measures success by its status in relation to USC.

Previous musings on this topic here.

It Was Fun While It Lasted

This is what I wrote and intended to post under the heading "It Was Fun While It Lasted" after USC's last loss to Oregon on October 27:

First of all, USC can still finish 10-2 and go to a BCS bowl, so there's plenty to play for. Although the Trojans lost to Oregon last Saturday, their play demonstrated that USC can beat anybody if they eliminate costly mistakes such as red-zone turnovers and big penalties. That includes Oregon State, Cal, Arizona State, and UCLA, the four remaining teams on USC's schedule.

Nevertheless, the Trojans five-year reign over the Pac-10 has unfortunately come to an end. After last Saturday, there is no longer any question that the Trojans have descended from their perch as the dominant program in college football to being merely a 'good' team. As fans, it hurts so much because we know how it feels to be at the top.

At a time like this, it is critical to maintain perspective. As disappointed as we all are right now, we are seven years removed from the darkest days of USC football, before Pete Carroll arrived to lead the Trojans back from irrelevance and mediocrity. The program is incomparably stronger than it was in 2000. USC has not lost its potential to be a great team and there is no reason to believe USC will not continue to compete for Pac-10 and national championships every year.

I don't remember why I didn't follow through with the post (I probably determined it was excessively negative), but having not deleted the draft provides insight into my thinking at the low point of the 2007 season. Clearly, I jumped the gun in giving up on the Pac-10 title and overreacted regarding the Trojans' status in college football. However, until Oregon lost Dennis Dixon, it looked like the Ducks were going to roll through the rest of the conference and into the BCS National Championship Game, where they would have been this year's selection to beat up an over-matched Ohio State team, instead of LSU. So, USC probably owes its sixth consecutive Pac-10 title to Oregon's misfortune (as does LSU its BCS title). Of course, the Trojans had more than their fair share of injuries to overcome.

My thinking was on the mark in other aspects, including my assessment of the team's chances against the remainder of their schedule. Happily, the team also believed there was still plenty to play for, regrouped, and finished the season impressively. Consequently, the 2007 season was "successful", based on my arbitrarily-defined criteria, and the Trojans appear poised to again contend for the national championship in 2008, just as I predicted.

Classy Bruins

Here's an interesting bit of news from Scott Wolf about UCLA's "elegant" handling of the basketball rivalry.

Can Slick Rick Deliver?

The impression I have, based on some Rick Neuheisel statements since he was hired as UCLA's new football coach, is that he is establishing a definition of success for his tenure that is based on UCLA's future performance in relation to USC. I don't mean just UCLA's head-to-head record against USC, but also an ability to win championships and bowl games at a rate comparable to USC. Neuheisel's statements include his televised interview from the stands as a spectator at the Rose Bowl game and his recorded telephone message to UCLA supporters, in which he said, “The team across town has risen to national prominence, and it’s time we meet this head on.”

I respect this approach, but is he setting up himself and his program to fail? My guess is UCLA fans expect to beat the Trojans about as often as they lose to them. Is that a realistic expectation right now? In the past quarter century, USC is 12-12-1 against UCLA, but that includes an eight-game losing streak during the 1990s, pre-Carroll. With Pete Carroll at the helm, the Trojans climbed the college football mountain and have performed at an elite, unprecedentedly consistent level – the 2008 Rose Bowl championship gives the Trojans a 5-1 record over six consecutive BCS bowl appearances. In the same period of time, UCLA has compiled a 43-33 (28-22 Pac-10) record including a 2-4 record in bowl games, none of which were played on or after New Year’s Day.

I don’t expect the Trojans to beat UCLA every year in perpetuity (I can live with one loss out of nine!), but Neuheisel is sowing the seeds of disappointment unless he can engineer a dramatic turnaround in the fortunes of both programs. If he cannot, his performance will not compare favorably against the bar he is setting, and he may not last long in what is probably his last chance as a head coach in the college game.

L.A. Recruiting Wars

There's more in the balance when USC plays UCLA tomorrow than bragging rights (and a spot in the BCS Championship game for USC). The victor also wins an advantage in the recruiting competition that's in full swing across the region.

Everyone knows a big factor in the dramatic turnaround of the USC football program from 2000-2002 was Pete Carroll's masterful recruiting. His philosophy is to lock up all the best players in southern California and then augment that talent with a handful of the best players from across the country. I always wondered how Carroll was able to immediately dominate recruiting in southern California, almost as if UCLA didn't exist. According to an article by David Wharton in today's L.A. Times, Carroll didn't have to go against UCLA head-to-head in many cases.

The Bruins held the upper hand in the late 1990s as former coach Bob Toledo led them on a 20-game winning streak. But soon after, UCLA appeared to shift its focus to the national scene. "You talked to the City Section coaches and they said they never saw UCLA on campus," said Greg Biggins of StudentSports.com.

Carroll filled the gap.

All in all, it's an interesting piece about the origins of Carroll's recruiting success, and how Karl Dorrell has tried to emulate Carroll's approach, with some success. Of course, USC has a seemingly insurmountable advantage at this point and figures to maintain that advantage as long as the USC coaches maintain their recruiting intensity.

USC to Wear Home Jerseys at the Rose Bowl?

A quote from Pete Carroll's weekly Tuesday press conference:

"I'm going to ask Coach Dorrell next year that they wear their home jerseys at the Coliseum . . . . I am hoping when they come here, they will be able to do that. I asked the Pac-10 about that last year and there are some issues. I think it's silly that there are some issues that we are going to have to forfeit a timeout or something, but I will do it. I think it's worth it. We should continue to enhance the beauty of this matchup."

This would be a return to the tradition of both teams wearing their home jerseys for the rivalry game, as they used to do when the game was played in the Coliseum every year before fUCLA moved their home games to the Rose Bowl. It's unclear from the quote - is Carroll planning to play in the home jerseys this Saturday against fUCLA or does he want to resolve the issues with the Pac-10 or work out an agreement with Coach Dorrell first? Lord knows we could get by without the time out; we practically threw one away last week on that ridiculous coach's challenge of a fourth down spot.

Anyway, I think it would be outstanding if the Trojans came out in their home jerseys this Saturday, like sort of an eff you to fUCLA . . . yeah, we know we have to play this game on your home field, but this is really our house and everyone knows who's king in this city.

Turning Point

The Notre Dame game was the turning point of the season. Each of the past three seasons has had one, after which the team never looked back. In 2002, it was the Cal game. USC lost the previous week in overtime at Wazzu. Trailing Cal by 21-3, USC scored 27 consecutive points to win the game 30-28. USC blew out its remaining 7 opponents, including Iowa in the Orange Bowl.

In 2003, it was the ASU game. USC lost its previous game in three overtimes to Cal (the Trojans’ last loss to date). USC was down 17-10 at halftime. Matt Leinart had been knocked out of the game in the first half with knee and ankle injuries. With Brandon Hance warming up to start the second half, Leinart asked to be put back in. The Trojans scored 27 unanswered points to win 37-17. The team won its remaining eight games by an average of more than 26 points, including a Rose Bowl win over Michigan to win its first national championship since 1978.

In 2004, it was again the Cal game. With USC leading by six, Cal advanced to first and goal with less than two minutes remaining. The Cal QB, Aaron Rodgers, had earlier in the game set the NCAA single-game record for consecutive completions. The USC defense held, sacking Rodgers on second down and forcing three incompletions. The Trojans won their remaining eight games. Only the UCLA game was close, but USC rebounded from that game to destroy Oklahoma 55-19 in the Orange Bowl.

The Notre Dame game was also a turning point for Leinart. The pressure of maintaining a school-record winning streak and leading the team to an unprecedented third national title was weighing heavily on the fifth-year Heisman-trophy winning QB. He had suffered a concussion and required stitches two weeks prior in a comeback victory over ASU. He had his worst game of the season at Notre Dame, completing only 53% of his passes with two interceptions and zero touchdowns. But, he led the most exciting game-winning drive of the season, including the amazing fourth and nine toss to Dwayne Jarrett from the USC 26 with 1:32 to go. Reading about that play today still gives me shivers.

As Leinart crouched under center, he said he saw a Notre Dame player to his right, "Kind of bluffing, but coming. Whatever. And I'm like, 'OK [shoot], here we go.'"

Kiffin could see that Leinart recognized the coverage.

"He's got it. He's got it!" Kiffin said into the headset.

Sarkisian started mouthing the audible to himself.

Carroll did the same, thinking, It's there, it's there, is he going to? Jarrett, wide to the left, had double vision from a fall earlier in the game, but clearly saw what everyone in the stadium and millions of television viewers saw too.

Leinart had stepped back and was changing his call.

"I was like 'Wow, I'm going to have to make a play.'" Jarrett said. "I just tried to open my eyes as wide as possible."

Leinart turned and pointed right with a closed hand. Then he turned and did the same to the left.

And then Matt Leinart stepped forward to start a play that will forever define him.

After Notre Dame, the pressure lifted from Leinart’s shoulders and he started enjoying playing football again.

There has been some speculation that the pressure of securing his legacy as the greatest college quarterback in history and winning an unprecedented third-consecutive national championship will be too much pressure for Leinart. He let his emotions get the better of him in the UCLA game, the final home game of his career. I don’t see that happening. I expect a performance more like the one following his emotionally-draining experience at Notre Dame, after which he threw for four touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 77% completion rate at Washington.

Not Nervous

I'm at a loss. I haven't really felt nervous the past month and today is no different. Last year at this time I could hardly contain my anxiety. This is especially strange when contrasted with how I felt before some of this season's regular season games, especially Oregon, Cal, and especially Notre Dame and fUCLA. Like I said, I can't explain it.

I'm wearing the same shirt I wore last year, just in case.

USC-UCLA

'nuff said.

The Eight-Step Program for Beating the Trojans

According to Seth Fast Glass of the UCLA rag Daily Bruin, UCLA must complete the following eight steps to beat the Trojans tomorrow:

STEP 1: Win the coin toss; score the first touchdown;

STEP 2: Throw the ball;

STEP 3: Take the lead into halftime;

STEP 4: Get Matt Leinart's jersey dirty;

STEP 5: Make a play on special teams;

STEP 6: Win the turnover margin;

STEP 7: Don't let USC make a big defensive play late; and

STEP 8: Get lucky

Is that all? Piece o' cake, right?

Given that the odds of UCLA completing Step 1 are exactly 1 to 1 and rapidly decline from there, it looks like the Bruins are going to be disappointed. Halftime leads didn't help Oregon, Arizona State, Notre Dame, or Fresno State, nor did big plays on special teams by Arizona State, Notre Dame, Fresno State, or UCLA last year. Matt Leinart has the country's best offensive line keeping his jersey clean. USC has the best turnover margin in the country. Making big defensive plays late has practically become a USC trademark (excepting the Notre Dame game). Step 8 speaks for itself.

Perception Plus Reality = ?

Here's a Bruin with a nuanced, balanced outlook on the big game. I assume this is the exception rather than the rule.

What Kind of Rival Is UCLA?

USC has two big football rivals: Notre Dame and UCLA. However, the two rivalries are different. The Notre Dame rivalry is characterized by mutual respect. Both USC and Notre Dame have suffered more losses to each other than any other school. The game against Notre Dame almost always takes place in the national spotlight with victory often serving as a launching pad for national championships and Heisman trophies. The rivalry with UCLA, on the other hand, is characterized by mutual dislike (many would say hate, and that would not necessarily be inaccurate). A win over UCLA is nice simply because it keeps the folks across town out of our faces for another year and puts the Bruins in their proper place. I know, I know . . . UCLA fans will point to this sentiment as an example of typical Trojan arrogance; but it’s true.

UCLA players and fans seem to view the cross-town rivalry somewhat differently. College Football Resource gave his take on each side’s perspective a couple weeks ago:

Two rivalries stand out to me as almost comical. Those are the ill feelings between Auburn and Alabama and USC and UCLA.

Most rivalries have both schools on some kind of level ground. That is, Michigan fans can make a lot of claims that they're the best, but so can Ohio State fans. But with these two specific rivalries, there's a certain big brother/little brother feel to them that cracks me up. Not surprisingly, USC and Alabama play the big brother roles. They've had a lot more success over the years, have owned the rivalries and their fans approach the rivalry a little different than those on the other side.

For simple proof, I present to you two blogs, one by a USC fan and the other by UCLA fans. The USC fan is his usual cool cucumber, relaxed about his place in the world and oblivious to the presence of his rival. The UCLA fan, however, has worked himself into some kind of lather, absolutely frothing three whole weeks before the game against his big brother. This stuff is hilarious . . . . It's like to one side they're just happy with the obligatory win just to shut the other guys up, and on the other side their whole existence is built into the outcome.

USC’s take on the two rivalries is encapsulated by Matt Leinart and fullback Brandon Hancock in today’s Los Angeles Daily News:

Leinart: “We respect Notre Dame. It's a classy rivalry.”

Hancock: “We respect Notre Dame and at the end of the day it's a pretty healthy rivalry. But all bets are off with these pansies. We don't want to just beat them. We want to hurt them. We're not going to call the dogs off in the third or fourth quarter. We want to send a message.”

Music to my ears.

P.S. USC has played Notre Dame 77 times and holds a record of 30-42-5 against the Fighting Irish. USC is 40-27-7 against UCLA.

BCS Bowl-Bound

USC apparently clinched its fourth consecutive BCS bowl berth when Oregon beat Oregon State yesterday, even if USC loses to UCLA. Of course, a loss to UCLA would knock them out of the Rose Bowl and end their hopes of winning a third consecutive national championship.

A Heisman-Winning Performance?

If USC beats UCLA in two weeks and Reggie Bush wins the Heisman, will his outstanding, record-setting performance in the Fresno State game go down as the moment when he locked up the trophy? Ivan Maisel thinks so.

Update: Bush makes Stewart Mandel rethink his Heisman vote -

It was like watching one of those hilarious high-school tapes where some future college star runs roughshod over a bunch of private-school rich kids.

Further update: Pete Fiutak makes a persuasive argument for Matt Leinart to repeat as Heisman winner -

Simply put, if USC beats UCLA and plays for the national title, based on his accomplishments, Leniart will be the greatest college football quarterback of all-time. The guy is overqualified for the honor of being the second two-time Heisman winner.

[. . .]

If USC goes on to win the national title, it’s not an overstatement by any stretch to call Leinart’s pass to Dwayne Jarrett for a 61-yard gain on fourth and nine in the final moments against Notre Dame the greatest throw of all-time.

Another Update: The best ever? Brian Meehan of The Oregonian also thinks so.

Fiutak's Voodoo T-shirts

Pete Fiutak recounts the following amusing story in this week's "Cavalcade of Whimsy" on College Football News:

The bidding starts at one USC Song Girl . . . This is no lie. I was wearing my UCLA Football t-shirt while running on the treadmill during the USC-Notre Dame game a few weeks ago. I took a very quick shower during the commercial break after the Brady Quinn fourth quarter touchdown run, and then unwittingly threw on my USC Football t-shirt when I got out. You know the rest. I noticed the same thing happened in reverse during the UCLA-Stanford game. I was wearing the USC t-shirt when working out, took a quick shower early in the fourth quarter, put on the UCLA t-shirt, and the Bruins won with an epic comeback. Guess what shirt was in the rotation when UCLA got destroyed by Arizona? I will wear one of the two on December 3rd. You may begin to woo me.

First of all, that anyone, even someone completely unaffiliated with either university, could so casually switch back and forth between USC and UCLA attire strikes me as very . . . wrong; like the situation on the ESPN commercial where the Ohio State guy and the Michigan girl (or is it the other way around?) are sitting together on the couch acting schmoopy.

Secondly, wear the UCLA T-shirt on Dec. 3, Pete - I wouldn't want there to be any doubt on Dec. 4 that the pasting given to the Bruins by the Trojans resulted from anything other than USC's vastly superior talent, coaching, and fortitude.

On the other hand, who can blame him for the attempted ploy to score some time with a Song Girl?

What are the criteria for a successful season?

When I was an undergraduate, I decided that the Trojans must accomplish two of three objectives before I would consider a football season successful: beat Notre Dame; beat UCLA; and go to the Rose Bowl. Incidentally, by these criteria USC never had a successful season while I was an undergraduate due to the unfortunate coincidence of two devastating streaks: eight straight losses to UCLA from 1991 to 1998 (the four that I saw were all very painful, but USC is making up for it now with a six-game winning streak starting in 1999) and Notre Dame’s 13-game unbeaten streak against USC from 1983 to 1995 (the 1994 game was a tie). I was at the last game of the ND streak.

In my mind the criteria has shifted. The Trojans must accomplish two objectives in order to have what I would consider a successful season: 1) go to a BCS bowl game; and 2) beat either Notre Dame, UCLA, or both. USC could finish with an 11-2 record and win a BCS bowl, but if they were to lose to Notre Dame and UCLA, it would not be completely happy about the season. Obviously, the likelihood of losing to both rivals and still going to a BCS game is very low, so I expect that scenario to be rare.

I would be interested to know what fans of other major programs believe are the criteria for a successful season at their schools.

USC-Stanford

What kind of numbers would Leinart, Bush, White, Jarrett, Smith & Co. have if they actually played more than 2 1/2 quarters per game? The pundits would have to apply a factor greater than one to the 3000/2 x 1000/2 x 1000 milestone that everyone's talking about.

This game was virtually over halfway through the first quarter. The second half was so boring I fell asleep during the third quarter (it was a late game on the east coast). If the offense clicks like this for the rest of the season, Cal, Fresno State, and UCLA are going to have very bad days.

How about UCLA?!! Yeah, it would have been nice to be responsible for ruining their undefeated season on Dec. 3, but man it was great to see them go down like that.

Longhorn Fans' Rooting Guide

Is this serious? Do Longhorns fans really need to be told which teams to root for? They even advocate rooting for the Sooners and the Aggies because it will improve Texas' schedule strength. That's just sad.

As long as polls play a role in determining the national champion of Div. 1 college football, no team is in complete control of its destiny. What's the use in getting worked up over the results of games across the country over which your team has absolutely no influence. It's simple for USC fans; we root for the Trojans . . . and whoever is playing UCLA.

Update: I guess this is a weekly thing.

Further update: It looks like All Things Longhorn took offense to this post. ; )