Turning Point 2006

Last January, just prior to the Rose Bowl, I posted an entry outlining the turning point games of the 2002 – 2005 seasons. The loss to Oregon State looks like this season’s turning point. A recap:

2002: Having lost in overtime the previous week to WSU, USC trailed Cal 21-3. The Trojans scored 27 consecutive points to win the game 30-28. USC blew out its remaining 7 opponents, including Iowa in the Orange Bowl.
2003: Again coming off an overtime loss, USC was down 17-10 at halftime to ASU. The Trojans scored 27 unanswered points to win 37-17. The team won its remaining eight games by an average of more than 26 points, including a Rose Bowl win over Michigan to win its first national championship since 1978.
2004: It was the Cal game again. With USC leading by six, Cal advanced to first and goal with less than two minutes remaining. The USC defense held, sacking Aaron Rodgers (who set a single-game record for consecutive completions earlier in the game) on second down and forcing three incompletions. The Trojans won their remaining eight games, including a 55-19 shellacking of Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl.
2005: After the Notre Dame game, Leinart finally shrugged off the pressure of maintaining a school-record winning streak and leading the team to an unprecedented third national title and started playing relaxed football again. The team won the remainder of their regular season games handily (except a close one to Fresno State), but lost the BCS Championship game to Texas.

2006 so far: Trailing 33-10 with less than 20 minutes remaining against Oregon State, USC scored the last 21 points of the game and narrowly missed sending the game to overtime when their 2-point conversion attempt failed with seven seconds remaining. Since the loss, USC has beat Stanford 42-0 and Oregon 35-10, thereby outscoring its opponents 98-10 in the last 140 minutes of play. There are two big differences between the Oregon State game and the turning point games of the previous four seasons. First of all, the game ended as a loss. Second, it came a little bit later in the season, but only by a game or two. This is not surprising considering the youth of this year’s team.

Of course, I had the benefit of hindsight last season whereas there are still three games left in the 2006 regular season. However, if recent history is any indication, and the trend that started late in the Oregon State game continues, Trojan fans have much to look forward to for the remainder of the season.

The Eight-Step Program for Beating the Trojans

According to Seth Fast Glass of the UCLA rag Daily Bruin, UCLA must complete the following eight steps to beat the Trojans tomorrow:

STEP 1: Win the coin toss; score the first touchdown;

STEP 2: Throw the ball;

STEP 3: Take the lead into halftime;

STEP 4: Get Matt Leinart's jersey dirty;

STEP 5: Make a play on special teams;

STEP 6: Win the turnover margin;

STEP 7: Don't let USC make a big defensive play late; and

STEP 8: Get lucky

Is that all? Piece o' cake, right?

Given that the odds of UCLA completing Step 1 are exactly 1 to 1 and rapidly decline from there, it looks like the Bruins are going to be disappointed. Halftime leads didn't help Oregon, Arizona State, Notre Dame, or Fresno State, nor did big plays on special teams by Arizona State, Notre Dame, Fresno State, or UCLA last year. Matt Leinart has the country's best offensive line keeping his jersey clean. USC has the best turnover margin in the country. Making big defensive plays late has practically become a USC trademark (excepting the Notre Dame game). Step 8 speaks for itself.

A Heisman-Winning Performance?

If USC beats UCLA in two weeks and Reggie Bush wins the Heisman, will his outstanding, record-setting performance in the Fresno State game go down as the moment when he locked up the trophy? Ivan Maisel thinks so.

Update: Bush makes Stewart Mandel rethink his Heisman vote -

It was like watching one of those hilarious high-school tapes where some future college star runs roughshod over a bunch of private-school rich kids.

Further update: Pete Fiutak makes a persuasive argument for Matt Leinart to repeat as Heisman winner -

Simply put, if USC beats UCLA and plays for the national title, based on his accomplishments, Leniart will be the greatest college football quarterback of all-time. The guy is overqualified for the honor of being the second two-time Heisman winner.

[. . .]

If USC goes on to win the national title, it’s not an overstatement by any stretch to call Leinart’s pass to Dwayne Jarrett for a 61-yard gain on fourth and nine in the final moments against Notre Dame the greatest throw of all-time.

Another Update: The best ever? Brian Meehan of The Oregonian also thinks so.

USC-Fresno State

USC didn't even have to play this game!

With the Pac-10 schedule moving from eight to nine games starting in 2006, the annual match with Notre Dame, and the likes of Nebraska (2006, 2007) and Ohio State (2008, 2009) on the schedule in the coming years, I think it will be a while before we see Fresno State on the Trojans' schedule again.

Update: I haven't been impressed with Matthew Zemak's analyses this year, but I liked his Instant Analysis of last night's USC-Fresno State game. His thoughts about the nature of this comeback victory as compared to other USC comebacks in 2005, the role of place-kicker Mario Danelo, Reggie Bush's clutch impact, and the potential impact of the game on pollsters' and college football experts' opinions of the Pac-10 in general and Oregon in particular were interesting.

Don't believe everything you see in the movies.

USC’s next opponent, Fresno State, believes they have found some chinks in the Trojans’ armor. “The Bulldogs said they . . . noticed some obvious mistakes and subtle errors by USC that opponents failed to take advantage of.”

Adam Jennings, receiver, California State University, Fresno: “You see them on the ESPN highlights and think these guys are the greatest team ever. In the film room . . . they don't look superhuman. You get to see the bad plays, the stuff not on ‘SportsCenter.’ You see mistakes and you have to figure out ways to exploit their weaknesses.”

Beware Bulldogs! Looks can be deceiving.

Houston Nutt, Head Coach, University of Arkansas: “Film is one thing. When you watch film and see them score 55 on Oklahoma’s caliber of defense . . . but to see it live. They are the best offensive team at every position.”

Jerry Glanville, Defensive Coordinator, University of Hawaii, watched every snap that Matt Leinart took in 2003 and 2004. After the game, he said the fifth-year senior was “better than he was last year.”

Bill Doba, Head Coach, Washington State University: “In the first quarter, their speed was something we had never seen.”

That’s right, folks. USC’s School of Cinema-Television, the country’s top film school and the alma mater of George Lucas (who has been spotted at several USC football games this year), is doing its part to support the football team’s 2005 campaign. It’s amazing what they can do with special effects these days.