I'm Ready

After watching last night’s BCS “national championship” game, and feeling very little surprise at the outcome, I’m finally ready for a playoff in NCAA Division 1-A college football.

Until now, I have not been in favor of a playoff. If I had my way, we would throw out the BCS and all related formats and return to the pre-Bowl Coalition/Alliance days. Bowls could invite whichever teams they wanted and form any deals that suited their interests with the conferences. I would be satisfied if the Trojans’ annual goal was simply to win the Pac-10 and go pummel some unlucky Big Ten team in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day (that’s all the Trojans have control over now anyway). Of course, that would require acknowledging that the Div. 1 national championship is truly “mythical”, something that the vast majority of college football fans seem unwilling to do. Since the likelihood of this scenario occurring is extremely low, having a playoff is a much better alternative than the ridiculous BCS.

Before bowl season started, I was relatively confident (25 of 32 confidence points, if you're interested) that Ohio State would beat Florida handily. That changed when I watched the Rose Bowl. The beat-down suffered by Michigan at the hands of USC led me to question the strength of the upper echelon of the Big 10, and therefore the superiority of Ohio State, a notion the mainstream media had presented as canon for almost the entire season. Time and again the bowls have demonstrated that a team’s performance in its conference is not predictive of its performance against teams from other conferences in bowl games. The underdog has won four of the last five BCS championship games. Hence my underwhelming surprise at Florida’s victory last night. Only a playoff system guaranteeing match-ups between different conference champions would provide a true national champion.

Limit playoff participants to the six major conference champions plus two at-large teams. Have a committee select the at-large teams and seed all eight teams using a BCS-like formula as a guide or something simpler like the college basketball ratings percentage index (RPI).

I guess you could say this change in attitude was partly provoked by selfishness. After watching how USC played against Michigan and Florida played against Ohio State, I would have loved to see USC take on Florida. The Trojans would have been tough to beat. But who knows; maybe LSU would have taken the title this year. Or Boise State. Obviously, you’d have to say Florida would be the favorites after last night.

I figure if a playoff had been in place for the last five years, the Trojans could have two more national championships. Over the past five years, USC under Pete Carroll has demonstrated a talent for performing very well in big games, especially against teams from other conferences. Aside from this year, USC was playing at the highest level in the country when they beat Iowa in the 2003 Orange Bowl. They would have made a playoff that year as an at-large team.

By the way, no way is the team that got its ass handed to it last night in the desert anywhere close to the second-best team in the country.

Congratulations Gators!

Turning Point 2006

Last January, just prior to the Rose Bowl, I posted an entry outlining the turning point games of the 2002 – 2005 seasons. The loss to Oregon State looks like this season’s turning point. A recap:

2002: Having lost in overtime the previous week to WSU, USC trailed Cal 21-3. The Trojans scored 27 consecutive points to win the game 30-28. USC blew out its remaining 7 opponents, including Iowa in the Orange Bowl.
2003: Again coming off an overtime loss, USC was down 17-10 at halftime to ASU. The Trojans scored 27 unanswered points to win 37-17. The team won its remaining eight games by an average of more than 26 points, including a Rose Bowl win over Michigan to win its first national championship since 1978.
2004: It was the Cal game again. With USC leading by six, Cal advanced to first and goal with less than two minutes remaining. The USC defense held, sacking Aaron Rodgers (who set a single-game record for consecutive completions earlier in the game) on second down and forcing three incompletions. The Trojans won their remaining eight games, including a 55-19 shellacking of Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl.
2005: After the Notre Dame game, Leinart finally shrugged off the pressure of maintaining a school-record winning streak and leading the team to an unprecedented third national title and started playing relaxed football again. The team won the remainder of their regular season games handily (except a close one to Fresno State), but lost the BCS Championship game to Texas.

2006 so far: Trailing 33-10 with less than 20 minutes remaining against Oregon State, USC scored the last 21 points of the game and narrowly missed sending the game to overtime when their 2-point conversion attempt failed with seven seconds remaining. Since the loss, USC has beat Stanford 42-0 and Oregon 35-10, thereby outscoring its opponents 98-10 in the last 140 minutes of play. There are two big differences between the Oregon State game and the turning point games of the previous four seasons. First of all, the game ended as a loss. Second, it came a little bit later in the season, but only by a game or two. This is not surprising considering the youth of this year’s team.

Of course, I had the benefit of hindsight last season whereas there are still three games left in the 2006 regular season. However, if recent history is any indication, and the trend that started late in the Oregon State game continues, Trojan fans have much to look forward to for the remainder of the season.

Turning Point

The Notre Dame game was the turning point of the season. Each of the past three seasons has had one, after which the team never looked back. In 2002, it was the Cal game. USC lost the previous week in overtime at Wazzu. Trailing Cal by 21-3, USC scored 27 consecutive points to win the game 30-28. USC blew out its remaining 7 opponents, including Iowa in the Orange Bowl.

In 2003, it was the ASU game. USC lost its previous game in three overtimes to Cal (the Trojans’ last loss to date). USC was down 17-10 at halftime. Matt Leinart had been knocked out of the game in the first half with knee and ankle injuries. With Brandon Hance warming up to start the second half, Leinart asked to be put back in. The Trojans scored 27 unanswered points to win 37-17. The team won its remaining eight games by an average of more than 26 points, including a Rose Bowl win over Michigan to win its first national championship since 1978.

In 2004, it was again the Cal game. With USC leading by six, Cal advanced to first and goal with less than two minutes remaining. The Cal QB, Aaron Rodgers, had earlier in the game set the NCAA single-game record for consecutive completions. The USC defense held, sacking Rodgers on second down and forcing three incompletions. The Trojans won their remaining eight games. Only the UCLA game was close, but USC rebounded from that game to destroy Oklahoma 55-19 in the Orange Bowl.

The Notre Dame game was also a turning point for Leinart. The pressure of maintaining a school-record winning streak and leading the team to an unprecedented third national title was weighing heavily on the fifth-year Heisman-trophy winning QB. He had suffered a concussion and required stitches two weeks prior in a comeback victory over ASU. He had his worst game of the season at Notre Dame, completing only 53% of his passes with two interceptions and zero touchdowns. But, he led the most exciting game-winning drive of the season, including the amazing fourth and nine toss to Dwayne Jarrett from the USC 26 with 1:32 to go. Reading about that play today still gives me shivers.

As Leinart crouched under center, he said he saw a Notre Dame player to his right, "Kind of bluffing, but coming. Whatever. And I'm like, 'OK [shoot], here we go.'"

Kiffin could see that Leinart recognized the coverage.

"He's got it. He's got it!" Kiffin said into the headset.

Sarkisian started mouthing the audible to himself.

Carroll did the same, thinking, It's there, it's there, is he going to? Jarrett, wide to the left, had double vision from a fall earlier in the game, but clearly saw what everyone in the stadium and millions of television viewers saw too.

Leinart had stepped back and was changing his call.

"I was like 'Wow, I'm going to have to make a play.'" Jarrett said. "I just tried to open my eyes as wide as possible."

Leinart turned and pointed right with a closed hand. Then he turned and did the same to the left.

And then Matt Leinart stepped forward to start a play that will forever define him.

After Notre Dame, the pressure lifted from Leinart’s shoulders and he started enjoying playing football again.

There has been some speculation that the pressure of securing his legacy as the greatest college quarterback in history and winning an unprecedented third-consecutive national championship will be too much pressure for Leinart. He let his emotions get the better of him in the UCLA game, the final home game of his career. I don’t see that happening. I expect a performance more like the one following his emotionally-draining experience at Notre Dame, after which he threw for four touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 77% completion rate at Washington.

The Round Robin Rocks

I want to go on record as being very excited about the Pac-10's new conference scheduling format starting next year. The Pac-10 almost immediately approved a full round robin format after the 12-game football season was made permanent by the NCAA. For some reason, I don't think the average non-Pac-10 fan is aware of the change, as demonstrated in this letter: "I say the Big XII, SEC, and now the ACC are determining conference champions the right way. On the field. The PAC 10, and Big 10 +1 need to take notice." To credit Pete Fiutak, in his response to the letter he states he supports the Pac-10 plan. It’s not the Pac-10 that needs to take notice, but rather the 12-team mega-conferences and especially the Big 10.

In the Pac-10, there will never again be conference co-champions that did not play each other, such as Big-10 champs Iowa and Ohio State in 2002, necessitating the existence of convoluted rules to determine the conference's Rose Bowl/BCS representative. Also, the Pac-10 will have no need for a conference championship game. Every team will play nine conference games and there is no risk of crowning a team with a lesser conference record the conference champion based on one very good or bad game, á la Big 12 champs Kansas State in 2003 or ACC champs Florida State this year.

The system is good for USC because it allows the Trojans to continue their annual contest with Notre Dame, play another big-name school in non-conference play (Nebraska in 2006 and 2007, Ohio State in 2008 and 2009), and play one other relatively easier non-conference game, in addition to their nine game conference schedule.