Hope

USC is manhandled by Oregon State 21-27. That did not look like a fluke.

I had hoped the 2008 season would not be like 2006 and 2007, when USC suffered one or two inexplicable losses. Now, that is exactly what I hope for in 2008. The last two seasons, the Trojans regrouped after their losses to finish strong and win the conference. We shall see.

A best case scenario would look like 2003, when USC lost in overtime to unranked Cal, but went on to win their remaining nine games in dominating fashion and finish the season ranked #1. We'll see. That did not look like a fluke.

Fight on!

It Was Fun While It Lasted

This is what I wrote and intended to post under the heading "It Was Fun While It Lasted" after USC's last loss to Oregon on October 27:

First of all, USC can still finish 10-2 and go to a BCS bowl, so there's plenty to play for. Although the Trojans lost to Oregon last Saturday, their play demonstrated that USC can beat anybody if they eliminate costly mistakes such as red-zone turnovers and big penalties. That includes Oregon State, Cal, Arizona State, and UCLA, the four remaining teams on USC's schedule.

Nevertheless, the Trojans five-year reign over the Pac-10 has unfortunately come to an end. After last Saturday, there is no longer any question that the Trojans have descended from their perch as the dominant program in college football to being merely a 'good' team. As fans, it hurts so much because we know how it feels to be at the top.

At a time like this, it is critical to maintain perspective. As disappointed as we all are right now, we are seven years removed from the darkest days of USC football, before Pete Carroll arrived to lead the Trojans back from irrelevance and mediocrity. The program is incomparably stronger than it was in 2000. USC has not lost its potential to be a great team and there is no reason to believe USC will not continue to compete for Pac-10 and national championships every year.

I don't remember why I didn't follow through with the post (I probably determined it was excessively negative), but having not deleted the draft provides insight into my thinking at the low point of the 2007 season. Clearly, I jumped the gun in giving up on the Pac-10 title and overreacted regarding the Trojans' status in college football. However, until Oregon lost Dennis Dixon, it looked like the Ducks were going to roll through the rest of the conference and into the BCS National Championship Game, where they would have been this year's selection to beat up an over-matched Ohio State team, instead of LSU. So, USC probably owes its sixth consecutive Pac-10 title to Oregon's misfortune (as does LSU its BCS title). Of course, the Trojans had more than their fair share of injuries to overcome.

My thinking was on the mark in other aspects, including my assessment of the team's chances against the remainder of their schedule. Happily, the team also believed there was still plenty to play for, regrouped, and finished the season impressively. Consequently, the 2007 season was "successful", based on my arbitrarily-defined criteria, and the Trojans appear poised to again contend for the national championship in 2008, just as I predicted.

Turning Point 2006

Last January, just prior to the Rose Bowl, I posted an entry outlining the turning point games of the 2002 – 2005 seasons. The loss to Oregon State looks like this season’s turning point. A recap:

2002: Having lost in overtime the previous week to WSU, USC trailed Cal 21-3. The Trojans scored 27 consecutive points to win the game 30-28. USC blew out its remaining 7 opponents, including Iowa in the Orange Bowl.
2003: Again coming off an overtime loss, USC was down 17-10 at halftime to ASU. The Trojans scored 27 unanswered points to win 37-17. The team won its remaining eight games by an average of more than 26 points, including a Rose Bowl win over Michigan to win its first national championship since 1978.
2004: It was the Cal game again. With USC leading by six, Cal advanced to first and goal with less than two minutes remaining. The USC defense held, sacking Aaron Rodgers (who set a single-game record for consecutive completions earlier in the game) on second down and forcing three incompletions. The Trojans won their remaining eight games, including a 55-19 shellacking of Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl.
2005: After the Notre Dame game, Leinart finally shrugged off the pressure of maintaining a school-record winning streak and leading the team to an unprecedented third national title and started playing relaxed football again. The team won the remainder of their regular season games handily (except a close one to Fresno State), but lost the BCS Championship game to Texas.

2006 so far: Trailing 33-10 with less than 20 minutes remaining against Oregon State, USC scored the last 21 points of the game and narrowly missed sending the game to overtime when their 2-point conversion attempt failed with seven seconds remaining. Since the loss, USC has beat Stanford 42-0 and Oregon 35-10, thereby outscoring its opponents 98-10 in the last 140 minutes of play. There are two big differences between the Oregon State game and the turning point games of the previous four seasons. First of all, the game ended as a loss. Second, it came a little bit later in the season, but only by a game or two. This is not surprising considering the youth of this year’s team.

Of course, I had the benefit of hindsight last season whereas there are still three games left in the 2006 regular season. However, if recent history is any indication, and the trend that started late in the Oregon State game continues, Trojan fans have much to look forward to for the remainder of the season.

The Positive

Pete Carroll: "Four turnovers and a punt return. That's what it takes to beat us."

Frustrating in so many ways

Turnovers: First and foremost, -4 in the turnover battle?! WTF?!! I have no idea when the last time that happened was. It turns out the last time USC committed four turnovers was the last time they lost a regular season game, in 2003 vs. Cal (Cal also had four turnovers in that game). The Trojans absolutely need to fix this problem if they want to win out.

Play-calling: Where’s the offensive creativity? Where’s the urgency? Sarkiffian finally opened it up when they were down 23 with less than 20:00 remaining, and lo and behold, the Trojans almost pulled off the comeback. Is there some reason why they can’t or shouldn’t make those plays starting in the first quarter? What's with the decision to go for a TD on 4th and goal from the 10 instead of kicking the field goal? I don't even want to get started on the call on the final two-point conversion attempt.

Soft pass coverage: If there was one aspect of the Trojans’ play that looked especially lackadaisical, it had to be their zone pass coverage. The Beavers weren’t gaining many yards after the catch, but they didn’t need to, consistently hitting receivers for 15 to 20 yards per catch. It would have been nice to see more tight one-on-one coverage, giving Trojan defenders more chances to break up passes or even, god forbid, intercept a pass or two.

Slow starts: This is a well-established pattern for 2006 that I hoped would be broken last Saturday. Following slow starts in all but the ASU game, the Trojans didn't seem to wake up until late in the third quarter. Even I didn't sleep in that late on Saturdays when I was at USC.

OK - rant over.

It will be interesting to see how the Trojans respond to their first regular-season loss in over three years. Will this be a learning experience from which they bounce back stronger, or will they self-destruct and begin a painful slide to a second-tier bowl game?

BCS Bowl-Bound

USC apparently clinched its fourth consecutive BCS bowl berth when Oregon beat Oregon State yesterday, even if USC loses to UCLA. Of course, a loss to UCLA would knock them out of the Rose Bowl and end their hopes of winning a third consecutive national championship.